Ukraine

[Glenn]

I know this has nothing to do with the game, but it my way of sharing my thoughts with my Banished family.

It makes me feel as if I'm doing something.

If a majority of people don't like what I have to say then I will delete the post.


I write this observation not in the belief that it will be ready by many people but simply to try and place into perspective the tragic events that are happening in Ukraine and why in many ways it is an inevitable failure of human character.

I feel appalled by what is happening, and have shed many a tear watching events as they unfold.

People around the world are asking, how in the twenty-first century is it possible that such a thing; such a blight on human civilisation can still occur?

The answer to that question is very simple, and is not one that anyone would want to hear.

What Putin is doing is innate in human nature - it had always been this way, it is a dark side to the way that the human brain is wired even though the vast majority of the people on this planet are able to keep this side of their nature chained and imprisoned deep in their subconscious and to allow the better side of their nature to dominate this primitive, primordial drive.

That is not to help justify what Putin is doing; I am shocked and outraged by what is happening and would do anything in my power to stop it, now, and for all time.

As I said this is an observation that may, and I hope, give you a greater, more insightful understanding of what is now happening in Europe.

In 2004 I wrote my thesis on this very subject and I must admit I did not fully expect what we are now seeing in Europe to happen before 2040-2050, and that it may not have happened in Europe at all.

What Putin is doing is typical of what is known in International Relations as the "Long Cycle," and to that, what follows is a simplified version of how the "Long Cycle" and the politics of global power affect us all.

*

In 1919 following the end of the First World War, Sir Halford Mackinder, the English geo-politician, in an attempt to place into perspective why the Great War had been fought wrote the book Democratic Ideals and Reality: A Study in the Politics of Reconstruction, in which he made the following observation:

....... A great and advanced society has, in consequence, a powerful momentum; without destroying the society itself you suddenly cannot check or divert its course. Thus it happens that years beforehand detached observers are able to predict a coming clash of societies which are following convergent paths in their development.

Mackinder believed that the Earth had a "Heartland" centred on the Eurasian continent, and whatever country controlled this territory would ultimately control and dominate humanity. His view of a "Heartland" centred  hegemonic power was by 1949 considered dangerously oversimplified and distorted; even though he predicated aggressive powers such as Nazi Germany and Japan would have to be effectively destroyed economically, militarily and industrially in order to check their expansionist tendencies.

Mackinder of course had a European centred nineteenth century vision of world power based on an observation there had been a world-war about every hundred years for the previous four centuries prior to writing his book.

It is a cycle of world power which according to Joseph Nye in The Changing Nature of World Power; that coincides with the controlling hegemon having lost the economic resources to maintain its dominant position, its legitimacy, and the ensuing deconcentration of power leads to another global was where a new hegemon emerges and legitimises its preponderance with post-war treaties.

Since 1495 five eras, five "Long Cycles" have been identified each of which began with a global war that so reduced the power of the current hegemon that a new hegemonic power emerges.

Such was the case with;

The Peace of Westphalia in 1648 at the end of the Thirty Years War
The Treaty of Utrecht in 1713 at the end of the War of Spanish Succession
The Congress of Vienna in 1815 at the end of the Napoleonic Wars
The founding of the United Nations in 1945 following the Second World War

A typical "Long Cycle" is between 87 and 122 years in length - from the beginning of one global war to the beginning of the next.

Each Cycle is roughly four generations in length, each 27-28 years long.

The first generation or phase is the period of conflict, follow by two post-war generations during which you see a shifting of power ( for us this is the shifting of power between the USSR/Russia and the USA ). The final phase or generation is where the deconcentration of global power begins and the destabilisation of world power begins in ernst, ( Russia/USA/China ).

Once this phase has commenced the Cycle repeats itself as it has done every century for the past five hundred years, and the new hegemon is not necessarily the one in positon when the war started.

Okay, so far so good, the "Long Cycle" is all about time and memory, even though you would expect collective memory and information flow in the modern world to be greater than any time in history.

Effectively, you have the generation that fights, followed by generations that forget and fail to fully understand the true horror of war, and a generation (generational attitude) that allows the Cycle to enter its final and destructive phase.

If we say the current Cycle started in 1914 then we are 108 years into the time line, however, if we start counting in 1945 then we are only 77 years into the existing time line (compared to the historical 87 to 122 years Cycle).

Which is why, years ago, when I wrote my thesis I hoped that what we are now seeing in Europe would not happen before 2040-2050, and I believed it may not have happened in Europe at all.

What that means is the time wheel of the current "Long Cycle" may not have turned in full and what is now happening in Ukraine is simply another pressure relieving war that pushes the Cycle back into its historical pattern.

Unfortunately, when I wrote my thesis I also believed that given everything that had happened in geo-politics since the end of the Second World War, then the current "Long Cycle" would be shorter than normal and from 2020-2025 the fourth deconcentration phase of the Cycle would commence which meant that the Western world would see the beginnings of the next great conflict between the Great Powers.

*

Having said that there are some things which are clear to any astute student of history, in particular, three of the golden rules of International Relations, in how nations deal with one another.

The first is; one thing always leads to another, in that, what one country does invites a response from another, and not necessarily from those countries involved in the problem in the first place.

So much is obvious given what is happening in Europe.

The second is; when trade cannot cross borders armies will.

Anyone who believes placings sanctions on Russia's oil and gas exports is a good idea would do well to remember this.

The third rule is; do not back your enemy into a corner that that it cannot get out off - you may have seen this mentioned recently in the wider media -  to wit, Russia must be given a way out of this mess before things go from bad to worse.

It is this rule, my third point that the world needs to recall – and the past consequences for failing to remember this rule.

In particular; what was Japan's reaction when America backed it into a corner that it could not get out of in 1941?

America (and Australia) were punishing Japan for what it was doing in China, but the trade embargo was so severe that Japan was faced (in 12 to 18 months) with the complete collapse of its economy, even its ability to grow and transport food from the fuel shortages that would follow the embargo.

The consequences of this economic overreaction are a matter of history - Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, and the war in the Pacific began.

This is not an observation of right or wrong, good or bad, or whether America should, or should not have done so, rather, it is perhaps one of the best historical examples of what happens when you back a country into a corner that it cannot get out of – when it perceives there is nothing left to lose – when it chooses to fight or die.

You will now see this golden rule being adhered to with comments about not wanting to sanction Russian oil and gas exports.

This reluctance is easy to understand.

If Putin believes Russia has been pushed so far into the corner that there is no way out, then it very likely that he will come out shooting with everything he has.

Again you see the same reluctance to introduce a no-fly zone over Ukraine as another example of not want to push Putin too hard; or too far into a corner – when the time comes Putin must have a way out.

Emotions, however, have a way of winning the day which is why golden rules tend not to be followed, or not for as long as some may want.

Academic discussions as to why such things happen become moot in the wake of such suffering.

How can any good, decent, person who is following what is happening in Ukraine not to help and stop what is happening?

Unfortunately, there is another type of person, people so naive, so blinkered; so ideologically brainwashed that they believe the dark side is the right side. They chose darkness over light, evil over good and believe they are right.

So here we are; has Putin already been pushed too far, does he have a way out, does he want a way out?
Will his threats of nuclear intimidation work?

Is the west too scared to act, to call Putin's bluff, if it is a bluff at all?

If he gets away with intimidating the west into submission will he then move on Moldova, or given he has made the same threats to Finland and Sweden that he made to Ukraine, will he move on them - strike while the iron is hot?

Even the Baltic States and Norway are at risk if Putin perceives NATO to be a coward's castle.

So what will Putin do if he wishes to make an example of Russia's nuclear ability?

To further intimidate the west.

How far can an international bully push and coerce his opponents into submission?

How many people have to die, how many lives destroyed?

If the west rolls over and lets Putin get away with what he is doing then the obvious question is; what will he do next?

It is a question already on many a lip, a topic of discussion and despair.

So again, if Putin choses to intimidate the West into further inaction, what location will be on his potential list of nuclear targets; a one strike target to use as an example of further intimidation and Russian military might?

It certainly wouldn't be a NATO country, or any of the other larger none NATO countries, and certainly not a major population centre.

You would expect him to target a remote location, perhaps one in a country already giving lethal military aid to Ukraine, one already perceived and warned about being a growing and possible military threat to Russia, (and China) a country not protected by a mutual defence treaty.

A soft target, a small target, a distant target.

It would most likely be a location hundreds of kilometers from anywhere, from a major population centre, one with minimal civilian casualties, and one that destroys a major military base of that nation in punishment, and to weaken its resolve to support democracy around the world; a nation where the Defence Minister has already publicly shown a weakening of the government's resolve to defend democracy in their own geo-political region.

If this were to happen (God forbid - I pray that I am wrong), then I would expect the name of that location to start with the letter T.

But consider this, if Putin does not and will not back down on Ukraine then he has too, he must, turn his threats into reality; if he doesn't it will place Russia in a precarious strategic position with
China despite any assurances to the contrary.

The reason is simple.

Given what is happening in Europe, China has several long-term strategic options which it would now be evaluating.

1)   Do nothing at all and pick up the pieces with Russia in the years to come.
2)   Help the West
3)   Strike at Taiwan
4)   Take back Russian Manchuria as it is still claimed by China as being historically controlled Chinese  territory.

Depending how things go for Putin in Ukraine one of two things will most likely happen.

If Putin wins then China will see the West as weak and the Taiwan option will moved to the top of the list for evaluation.

If Putin loses then Russian Manchuria will move to the top – it is an opportunity that China may never see come again; - Taiwan however, can wait for another day.

Now it is easy to understand why there are people who believe we should take the head of the monster - if only it had been done to Hitler.

I pray for peace, and for a quick end to the war in Ukraine, and by the grace of God that we are all still alive in a few weeks' time.

[kid1293]

What you are saying is that any large constellation of power will inevitably lose its momentum
and legitimacy, stubble over its own feet, and fall prey to dark forces.

Sure, I think humanity still has a lot of lessons to learn. Historically and through relations.

Maybe the short time span of The Long Cycle is caused by advanced technics used to 'augment' humanity.
Research and breakthroughs further accelerate the evolution.

We have developed so far into the future but our basic needs are still hundreds of years behind.
No wonder some bully takes a chance to use simple force to get what he wants.

Do not stop this thread. It is a good outlet for feelings and discussion.

[Glenn]

Thank you Kid,

I didn't mean the Great Powers fight because of light or dark forces being at work.

In International Relations the "Long Cycle" is exactly that, a long cycle of time in generational terms when people forget the true horrors of war.

The Cycle is the turning of life, and you are correct, one would have thought given modern technology and our ability to quickly transmit information and understand what has happened in the past that what is now happening in Ukraine should and would never have happened.

Sadly, that is not the case.

I have heard people say that Putin is the most irrational and dangerous of all post war Soviet/Russian leaders - perhaps that is true - I don't know.

Putin, however, unlike previous Soviet leaders did not live through the horrors of WWII.

He is a product of the generational change of the 'Long Cycle" which is why the wheel keeps on turning.

And while I used Europe as my example, I believe the same is true of ancient Rome and China.

I think we should all pray for peace and a quick end of this conflict before things spiral out of control.

Thank you again for your comment -  alternative points of view can always bring thoughts you hadn't considered.

[theonlywanderer]

As long as governments continue to fight low life pieces of S while trying to maintain their personal code of ethics, we'll always have low life pieces of S to deal with because there are no real consequences for being a low life piece of S.

When dealing with this level of low life pieces of S, it's time to toss out ethics and just eliminate the low the life piece of S from the earth as soon as possible.

Once this kind of response is taken, the rest of the low life pieces of S will start to reconsider their actions.

[dixiechow]

I join with you in praying for peace in Ukraine. 

[taniu]

I join with you in praying for peace in Ukraine. I have great respect for my countrymen, they showed that we have good hearts for such unfortunate people of Ukraine and we try to help as much as we can - we ordinary people. I am very scared  with my wife and we are experiencing this situation, not even allowing the thought that it might be the beginning of the Third World War. All the Baltic States and Central Europe are very much endangered and it was done by one man - it seemed that we are in the 21st century - that it is impossible, but still. Maybe humanity will perish - and the Earth will rest from us? maybe people will finally come to their senses - instead of saving our Earth, = so that nowhere in the world there are no wars, hatred towards other people, = change and protect our climate, so that there are no various disasters on the whole Earth = and go into space and explore the whole the universe would be a new goal for humanity and not destroy the Earth that protects us.

[Glenn]

Taniu, I can only begin to imagine the thoughts that must be going through your mind, and your wife's.

I see you are from Poland whereas I live about as far away from Ukraine as you can get, and I am worried sick about where this is going.

I see Poland wants to introduce a trade embargo and here in Australia we have already begun - our Prime Minister has just announced an embargo on Bauxite and aluminium to Russia with 70,000 tonnes of coal to be sent to Ukraine for use in electricity power stations.

This in itself is something Europe as a whole should be thinking about -  Australia has more coal and natural gas than we can ever use, and our abundance can be used to offset similar imports from Russia.

For me however, the question is how far should we go in our trade embargos given one of the golden rules of international relations -  when trade cannot pass borders armies will.

Unfortunately, that horse seems to have already bolted and if Putin isn't stopped in Ukraine then he will keep on going.

And when I say stopped I mean on the battlefield as any compromise or peace settlement of any type will be seen by Russia as victory, no matter what their losses have been.

Russia would lose 500,000 soldiers in one battle after another in WWII  -  so loosing 10,20 or 50,000 in Ukraine will be seen as nothing as long as they win or force a peace settlement in there favour.

He will see NATO as weak, easily intimidated.

Putin will then regroup, rearm and come again -  remember Hitler had no patience, Putin does -  Ukraine as been a long time in coming -  twenty years.

If Putin isn't stopped now then next time it will be worse, much worse -  he and his army will learn from their mistakes and next time we will not be so lucky.

I will pray for you and your wife -  I wish I was there so I could help in some way.

[taniu]

Thank you for your spiritual support @Glenn, we are already elderly, we can only thank people with good hearts from all over the world for helping Ukraine and financial help for Poland. I wrote a post maybe too drastic and there will be no III World War , even big heads cannot stop this avalanche, stopping trade with Russia is a weak consolation, it will not do anything, it will only cause a greater economic crisis and even more people will suffer because of this decision - this just my opinion. Let us now return to our beloved Banished, let's build new beautiful cities and villages, we ordinary people do not have much influence on this situation, time will tell ?!

[Glenn]

Thank you Taniu,

When I was a boy there was British television show call Dad's Army - a territorial defence force made up of old men in WWII -  I'm not much younger than you.

As for your comments on WWIII, I feel the same way - my sons and nephews are in their thirties.

What is happening in Europe is terrible, but what China does next may make things even worse - one would think they wouldn't be so stupid, but given what Putin has done that may not be the case.

A trade and financial embargo against Russia is one thing, against China it would reach a far more dangerous level -  China has ten times as much to lose.

Everything China has created, socially and economically over the last fifty years has been built on trade and economic co-operation with the west -  they would be fools to throw it all away in misguided support for Putin.

If I was you I would be preparing for the worst and praying for the best -  we all should be.

The European spring is coming -  I believe historically Spring and Summer is called the fighting season.

Stay safe.

[Glenn]

Here is a link to an article that is one of the better analysis of the wider implications of the war in Ukraine given it was written two weeks ago.

https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/

While relatively brief and lacking in detail, it explains the consequences of Chinese inaction reasonably well for a lay audience.

It is well worth the read.

[Glenn]

There is a Chinese proverb that says;

I was angered, for I had no shoes. Then I met a man who had no feet.

President Xi Jinping is an angry man who believes China should be the world's most powerful nation both economically and militarily.

Unfortunately, what he does not understand is that in modern times a nation's power does not primarily come from the barrel of a gun, it also comes from the moral strength of its people and the example they set for the rest of the world.

President Xi fails to understand that true power lies is in the moral legitimacy of a nation and its leaders, not in their ability to bully and kill. 

The economic and social prosperity China has created over the last fifty years has been built on trade and economic co-operation with the world, and in particular with the West.

In turn that has allowed China to lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and transform the nation.

The question now is; does the Chinese Government want to throw that all away by supporting Vladimir Putin? A man who also believes he has no shoes. Vladimir Putin, a man who shows every indication of joining Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin in the halls of pure evil.

Does anyone in the Chinese Government really want to be complicit in allowing the world to fall into the historical trap of world war?

Does China want to be a nation with no feet?

Does China want to be a nation that supports evil over good?

Because that is exactly what will happen if China does nothing and Putin remains in power, and the war in Ukraine spirals out of control.

Does the Chinese Government want to lose everything they have built over the past fifty years?

Everything China could have achieved over the next fifty years?

At the very best tens of millions of Chinese jobs will be lost, - jobs that will flow back to the west from whence they came. China will be destabilized by social and economic upheaval.

Is that the path the Chinese Government wants to take?

It should remember; a clear conscience never fears midnight knocking.

The Chinese Government knows what is on the line, not only for them, but for the whole world, and recall: It is not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing.

China is an ancient and enduring nation and now is the time for it to become a stabilizing, respected, moral pillar of the international community and do everything it possibly can to stop midnight knocking before the evil giants are beaten by the dragon fairies.

This is the one task China should be pursuing, not the second that will see it lose everything.

It is still not too late for the Chinese Government to support good over evil.

Before everything is lost - for all of us.

 

[Glenn]

For any who may have read my last post and wondered what on earth I was really saying, the answer is simple; I was quoting Chinese proverbs for a wider audience.

At the moment the Chinese Government is in the unique position of being able to influence Vladimir Putin more than anyone else in the world.

The Chinese position is, in its essence very simple - does China want to continue to support Putin and risk being seen as a nation of evil giants, or does it want to do everything in its power to stop Putin before we reach a point of no return?

The proverb regarding "evil giants being beaten by the dragon fairies," is one of the fight, and the victory of good over evil - for us Russia and China would be seen as the evil giants while NATO and its allies are the dragon flies, the forces of good.

It is the fight of light, over the forces of darkness.

The question for President Xi Jinping is simple; is the Chinese Government willing to risk everything in support of an evil tyrant?

Does China want conflict with the West, and undermine, if not destroy the global economy?

Does President Xi Jingping not realise that what he is doing, rather what he is not doing, will only force the West to create a Greater Western Alliance that reaches out to embrace not only NATO, but all of the West's alliance and treaty structures around the world and fold them into one vast world-wide security network?

How could he be so blind?

Has he lost his way?

Unfortunately, he like Putin, is the product of the same generational attitude shift that allows the "Long Cycle" of global politics to exist - so in that regard the question is not; how could he be so blind, rather it should be; how could he not?

There were, and I imagine there still are people who do not believe that the "Long Cycle" of global politics actually exists, people who do not understand that the "Long Cycle" is in effect the Catch-22 of international relations.

They do not understand that by not believing, that they, and their attitude is in its essence the generational change of attitudes that allows the "Long Cycle" to exist at all.
Without non-believers the "Long Cycle" of global power politics could not exist.

*

Anyone who read my first post will recall that I mentioned I wrote my thesis based on the Mackinderian "Long Cycle" of Power politics and the cycle of world power.

What I didn't mention was that when I submitted my thesis it had to be sent out for additional grading as there were people who believed I should not have been allowed to write such a thesis in the first place.


I submitted it at the end of 2004.

My thesis was titled:

A Forecast of
Australia's Strategic Geopolitical
Situation with China in the Decade
2040-2050

For the record I would like to publicly thank my principle supervisor at the time, Dr Craig Snyder, who when I initially discussed the basis of my thesis encouraged me to write it.

I say this not because my interpretation of the Mackinderian "Long Cycle" allowed me to predict - that given everything that had happened in geo-politics since the end of the Second World War, then the current "Long Cycle" would be shorter than normal and from 2020-2025 the fourth deconcentration phase of the Cycle would commence which meant that the Western world would see the beginnings of the next great conflict between the Great Powers.

Remember international relations is all about cause and effect - if I do this, they do that.

Accurate predictions are all about understanding history, human nature and cause and effect.

As such;

Sir Halford Mackinder, wrote .... Thus it happens that years beforehand detached observers are able to predict a coming clash of societies which are following convergent paths in their development.

I live in rural Australia and am about as detached an observer as you could find, and I know there are other observers who follow their own similar lines of thought.

Recently, I even approached Deakin University and said to them; that given it is nearly twenty years since I started to write my thesis I thought now would be a good time for the university to dust it off and revaluate in a more up to date geo-political environment.

I had one polite reply, then nothing - oh well, so much for that.

And while I could make a long list of observations in this regard to the above what is bothering me now is - are the geo-political assumptions I made after 2020-2025 in regard to China also as accurate, or has the timeline of events I foresaw been rolled forward by a decade or more?

I suppose only time will tell.

*

In closing this post I would like to make another observation about understanding history, human nature, and cause and effect.

In particular NATO's extraordinary summit scheduled for tomorrow Thursday 24 March 2022, in Brussels.

And while I am a remote, detached observer, I am as emotionally embroiled in the outcome of this meeting as I imagine anyone not living in Ukraine can be.

We all know what happened following the Appeasement Hitler, and we now know what happens when policies of indifference and appeasement are applied to Putin.

And while it is obvious that tomorrow's meeting in Brussels will be one that is written into the history books, we can speculate and predict a number of outcomes.

1.   Will the Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, President Biden and the other leaders face the world waving a verbal piece of paper like Neville Chamberlaine did with the Munich Agreement between Hitler and Britain in 1938, and thereby allow what is happening in Ukraine to continue.

If they do, one could be forgiven for asking if these people have learned nothing from history in regard to what happens when you appease tyrants.

In that, they are only delaying the inevitable, and by doing so make they will only make everything that much worse.

2.   Alternatively, the meeting may reach as resolution and what you would expect to be a multiple point ultimatum given to Russia.

A timeline would be given, to wit,  if Russia does not show signs of complying with the ultimatum then I suggest at 12.00 midnight on Friday 25 March 2022, (rather 12.01am on Saturday 26 March 2022) NATO will declare war on Russia or at the very least commence military operations.

My timeline may be a little out but the crux of the matter is still the same.

Now I would ask you - what do you think Putin's reaction would be, not to point one (he would laugh at point one) but to point two?

A tyrant backed into a corner, a tyrant who has already threatened to use nuclear weapons to make sure he gets his way.

The mindset of such people is to fight - after all, it is other people who do the dying.

Here I see three things that could happen; - again this is human nature, cause and effect.

1.   Putin will up the ante and brace for a NATO onslaught, then wait for China to bail him out; or

2.   He will immediately conduct a nuclear strike outside of NATO territory in an attempt to intimidate the West into not committing its forces in direct military action.

3.   An attempt will be made to overthrow him and his complicit cronies.

What will happen?

I don't know, making predictions based on human nature, and cause and effect is one thing, having a crystal ball is something altogether different.

Only time will tell where we go from here.

Perhaps what we should consider the possibility that the building NATO leaders are to walk out off on Thursday may not be standing at the end of the day, or an attempt will be made to destroy it while the NATO leadership is still inside.

Stay safe; if you believe in God now would be a good time to pray.

[Glenn]

I can imagine that anyone who took the time to read my posts on Ukraine may have thought I was being rather silly for posting such comments.

Well here I go again.

Last night - it was after midnight local time when I was able to connect to the live press conference following NATO's extraordinary summit.

As I sat there listening in shocked disbelief at Jens Stoltenberg's words and the hidden appeasement behind his statement I had visions of Putin sitting in his chair watching the same press conference.

In my mind I could see the smile on Putin's face and hear the soft chuckle of his laughter, and feel the contempt he felt at the weakness of the man and for NATO in general.

So easily scared, so easily intimidated.

Standing behind Putin's chair I could Xi Jinping pulling Putin's strings like the malevolent puppet master that he is.

In the shadows behind Stoltenberg I could see the wispy outline of Neville Chamberlaine crying out in silence "don't make the same mistake that I did."

As I listened to Stoltenberg's words I couldn't help but wonder if all the leaders at the summit were as blind, naive, and I dare say as stupid as Stoltenberg.

I know Stoltenberg and the other leaders believe they are doing the right thing, but their mindset is such that they are making decisions based on fear and intimidation - weakness not strength.

Despite all the words of encouragement and support for Ukraine they have failed to see these events for what they are - they have failed to look in from the outside in a more objective and insightful manner.

They have thrown Ukraine to the wolves.

Do they not understand that yesterday's decision may, and most likely will make everything that much worse?

NATO's failure yesterday has given Russia and China a major strategic victory.

Ukraine, like Czechoslovakia may well be sacrificed in the misguided belief that the West can stop the war from escalating.

Even if the West is correct in the view that Putin believed the conflict would be over in a few days, NATO does not understand that such thoughts, do not, in the long term, matter.
They do not matter one little bit.

NATO needs to understand that given the level of sacrifice Russia and China have both made in past conflicts, they do really care what the final cost in men, material, treasure or destruction is - or how long it takes to achieve their goals.

They will willingly sacrifice the lives of tens millions of people to get what they want - such is the way of tyrants, the way of evil.

In World War Two, man for man, Germany had the best army in the world, perhaps the best army ever to go into combat – and while there are many reasons for Hitler's ultimate failure, two of those reasons are; Hitler was a shortsighted and impatient man, and Germany lacked the men and economic resources to achieve Hitler's unrealistic objectives.

Hitler also failed to learn the lessons of history.

Why do I say this?

The reason is simple.

1.   Putin is not an impatient man; the war in Ukraine has been twenty in the making.
2.   Putin is heading west not east.
3.   With China's backing Putin will be able to draw on their economic power - think of America being the arsenal of democracy in WWII, only the reverse.
4.   The Chinese have even more patience than Putin, they have spent seventy years watching, waiting, planning and building so they can take back Taiwan.
5.   The West knows/believes Russia's munitions are running low, but so too are the West's arsenals being depleted and sent to Ukraine.
6.   For China the war in Ukraine is a welcomed distraction for the West, it captures the West's political attention and military focus; it diverts them from the Asia-Pacific – even if Putin stops to
        regroup, rearm, and retrain his armies, the West will not, and cannot take the risk of moving these military assets should China take the opportunity to strike at Taiwan. The West's ability to
        respond militarily in the Pacific will be greatly diminished.

Can you see now why yesterday's intimidation and appeasement based decision by NATO - although they would never admit as much - was a failure of historic proportions?

NATO thinks appeasement will stop WWIII from happening - I would suggest that NATO's leadership has failed to learn from history, and rather than stopping the expansion of the conflict all they have done has guaranteed that it will happen.

Their thinking is too short term, an expansion of the conflict will not be tomorrow, it may not be next week, next month or even next year - but it will come, there can be no doubt about that - it's only a matter of time, when it will happen, and that day may be sooner than you think.

People think Putin wants all of the Ukraine - I would suggest that is not the case - I believe he wants everything east of the Dnieper River as it would give Russia a more defensible position, and a geographic boundary on the European Plain.

He also wants a puppet state; or at least a neutral state similar to Finland west of the Dnieper.

He has said as much, and I suspect that is true.

It is also possible that everything that has so far come to pass has been bluster and bluff - designed to get Ukraine's eastern territory.

Putin may be 100 percent correct when he says that everything is going to plan, although it may be taking longer and costing more than he expected -  he doesn't care – such is the way of a sociopath or a psychopath.

That does not mean that seizing Ukraine's western littoral regions on the Black Sea is out of the question - but I would suggest that here again it is all part of his plan to take the east - taking the west will come later.

Now I can only wonder if yesterdays' summit was the precursor for a latter day Munich Agreement and NATO threw away the opportunity to stop Putin while his army was weak.

The NATO leadership needs to remember that history is filled with people like Putin and even long after this chapter of the current "Long Cycle" has been written and entered into the history books, that there will be someone to take the place of Putin and I dare say Xi Jinping.

There always is.

Such is life, such is human nature; such is generational change.

Where is JFK when you need him - he wouldn't have taken this crap from Putin?

Even if - God willing - Ukraine manages to prevail, the NATO leadership should hang their heads in shame for such cowardice.

I wonder how history will judge them?

If anyone is wondering - I am not anti-Russian, nor am I anti-Chinese - I am anti-evil.

[theonlywanderer]

@Glenn

I admit, didn't and won't read it all, just not my thing going that deep, but I read a tad bit at the top of each one.   I think you need to find a way to relax a bit about things you cannot change.  Try to focus on the immediate things you can do to help yourself and the people around you, who you care for, to not only get through these tough times, but to plan for the future.

You saw my comment, I tend to keep things simple because letting the things you cannot change take over your life has only one outcome, misery.

[Glenn]

Yes, you're correct, I know I tend to looker deeper into things, it's in my nature never to take things a face value.

And what really gets me going is when I hear comments that are designed to fool and manipulate people - comments that are 100 percent true, while at the same time are 100 percent false and misleading.

When I was doing my degrees there were even courses that showed and taught how to guide and lead people in certain directions - manipulation, the art of consent.

From what I have observed over the years it is clear that the overwhelming majority of people always tend to take things at face value - we are all too busy living life - working, going to school, raising families etc.

Looking too deep makes one realise that good and evil really exist, so people tend not to do this - by taking things at face value people can see what they want to see, not what is actually there, or what is actually happening -  it allows then to cope with life.

Look at what is happening in Russia - the majority of people do not want to believe they are supporting the forces of evil -  the dark side.

But I am a man who believes is God, too many things have happened in my life to believe otherwise - I believe in signs - in guiding hands.

And having said that, at this stage I do not plan to write further on what is happening in Ukraine -  I see no need - I have done what needed to be done, what was required of me.

Thank you all for your understanding.