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Diseases From RSC Files

Started by slink, August 27, 2014, 10:48:26 AM

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salamander

Quote from: rkelly17 on September 25, 2014, 06:12:09 AM
@salamander, early on I got so worked up about epidemics that I followed every sick person in several settlements. That was before the mod kit and the ability to see the actual numbers in the .rsc file. The one thing that Banished epidemics don't have that some real diseases have is acquired immunity. I saw several citizens get sick in the same outbreak (stupid hospital idlers) and the way I read the .rsc files there is no protection after getting better.

@rkelly17 -- While poking around in the .rsc files, I just ran across a line in Citizen.rsc (in resource\Template) that looks like it might give a period immunity after recovering: 'float _immunityLength = 12.0f'.  It's around line 117 in the file.  Maybe the 12.0 is the number of months of immunity, but I'm not sure.  Based on your observations, it could also be that this value isn't currently used in the game.

rkelly17

Quote from: salamander on September 27, 2014, 07:04:20 AM
@rkelly17 -- While poking around in the .rsc files, I just ran across a line in Citizen.rsc (in resource\Template) that looks like it might give a period immunity after recovering: 'float _immunityLength = 12.0f'.  It's around line 117 in the file.  Maybe the 12.0 is the number of months of immunity, but I'm not sure.  Based on your observations, it could also be that this value isn't currently used in the game.

Yeah, now that you mention it, I saw that line, too. As I remember the situation, the people who got reinfected were ones who had been sick early in the outbreak and they might well have gone past the immunity period when they got sick again from idling outside the hospital. I wish my memory were better.

irrelevant


salamander

LOL -- Mine seems to have gone to somewhere less than 1.0 lately.

rkelly17

Quote from: irrelevant on September 27, 2014, 08:00:12 AM
@rkelly17 float _memoryLength = 1.0f?  ;)

Actually my .rsc file says something like Before 1600: float_memoryLength=almost infinite; Yesterday: float_memoryLength=0

;D

RedKetchup

an alzimer like me ? how is my float_memoryLength=0
;D ;D
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Pangaea

Quote from: salamander on September 27, 2014, 07:04:20 AM
Quote from: rkelly17 on September 25, 2014, 06:12:09 AM
@salamander, early on I got so worked up about epidemics that I followed every sick person in several settlements. That was before the mod kit and the ability to see the actual numbers in the .rsc file. The one thing that Banished epidemics don't have that some real diseases have is acquired immunity. I saw several citizens get sick in the same outbreak (stupid hospital idlers) and the way I read the .rsc files there is no protection after getting better.

@rkelly17 -- While poking around in the .rsc files, I just ran across a line in Citizen.rsc (in resource\Template) that looks like it might give a period immunity after recovering: 'float _immunityLength = 12.0f'.  It's around line 117 in the file.  Maybe the 12.0 is the number of months of immunity, but I'm not sure.  Based on your observations, it could also be that this value isn't currently used in the game.

I've seen that too, but I'm not sure if it is active -- unless it's a relatively new thing. This was probably on 1.0, but I'm almost 100% positive somebody walked out of a hospital after being treated, and practically turning on their heels back in after getting sick again.

mariesalias

Quote from: rkelly17 on September 25, 2014, 06:12:09 AM
I admit that I've started using @RedKetchup's mod of the "doctorhouse" to eliminate the happiness effect of idling at the hospital because all the idiots getting sick made me apoplectic, but I do wonder whether hospital idling wasn't put in on purpose to make sure that diseases spread. With enough well-placed hospitals one can limit the number of people who are infected by a sick citizen walking to the hospital, so the idling makes sure more get infected no matter how good one's hospital placement is.

Thanks for mentioning this mod! There are so many mods now I have no idea where to even begin with them. The hospital idling drives me nuts though, so now I know. :D

irrelevant

#38
Quote from: slink on August 27, 2014, 10:48:26 AM
I am not sure what the difference is between transmission chance and acquisition chance.  I might guess that transmission chance is what chance there is that the infected person is putting out germs, and acquisition chance is what chance uninfected people have of catching the disease from exposure to those germs.
Disease         Transmission Acquire "1 in" Percent
Name         Time Chance Radius Chance Death Death
Influenza 0.25 0.6 8 100 50 2
Mumps         0.25 0.5 8 90 35 3
Diptheria 0.25 0.55 8 80 80 1
Dysentary 0.25 0.55 8 80 25 4
Yellow Fever 0.25 0.65 8 60 20 5
Scarlet Fever 0.25 0.7 8 50 15 7
Typhus         0.25 0.75 8 40 12 8
Measles         0.25 0.75 8 30 10 10
Tuberculosis 0.25 0.8 8 20 8 13
Smallpox 0.25 0.85 8 10 5 20
Cholera         0.25 0.9 12 5 4 25
Plague         0.25 0.85 12 1 3 33



I know this is a dead thread, but I have been thinking a lot about disease, and I have developed a theory regarding what is the difference is between "acquire chance" and "transmission chance"

Something triggers a disease, some RNG event that is checked periodically. This RNG event takes place some time prior to the disease actually showing up. I believe this is the case because I have a save that is from a month or so before the smallpox outbreak that swept through my town Sink Mill.

Whenever this save is replayed, a disease always occurs at more or less the same point in the game. That indicates that the disease-causing event had already taken place.

The actual disease that breaks out, however, is not the same each time. This indicates that there is a second RNG event at the time of the outbreak, that determines which disease pops up.

I believe each disease is checked with a RNG against that disease's "acquire chance," beginning with the least likely, Plague, a 1% chance. If you don't get Plague, it then checks to see whether you get Cholera, the next least likely, then Smallpox, etc, working its way up the list. If you get past Mumps, a 90% chance, then your disease will be Influenza, which has a 100% chance.

This is the only mechanic I can come up with that makes sense of these chances.

The "transmission chance," which varies from 50% to 90%, is the chance of any individual bannie getting the disease, who passes through the "transmission radius" of a sick bannie. Although something about that doesn't seem quite right, as I have the impression that disease is transmitted far less often than that. Perhaps the "transmission time" is a factor here. It could mean that in order for the transmission chance to be checked, a bannie must first spend that amount of time (always 0.25, which I presume means a quarter of a game "month") inside the transmission radius of a sick bannie. That would account for idlers (and pedestrians walking in the same direction) getting sick more frequently than pedestrians just passing in the street.

Just speculation, but it all fits what I have observed.


rkelly17

Very interesting, @irrelevant, very interesting. The transmission odds seem, well, odd. In your save game have you noticed any difference in the size of the epidemic based on which disease is triggered? As I read the table, based on your theory, 85 out of 100 times a citizen who is within 12 squares of a citizen sick with plague for .25 whatevers (What is the time unit in Banished?) will get plague. On the other hand,  only 60 times out of 100 a citizen who is within 8 squares of a citizen with influenza for .25 whatevers will get the flu. That means that plague should spread more quickly and be more difficult to eradicate than flu. Am I reading you correctly?

irrelevant

#40
@rkelly17 Yes, that is what I believe.

I played the Sink Mill epidemic scenario twice. The first time I got smallpox, the second time diptheria. Here was my observation at the time:

Quote from: irrelevant on October 06, 2014, 10:07:00 PMAutumn 75 - Interesting, the diptheria outbreak is progressing much differently than what the smallpox did. Where the smallpox exploded out into the population in a short time, the diptheria is very slow to spread. It took three months to grow beyond 10 cases. Now there are 60, and while hardly anyone has died from it, there is no hope of stopping it. I think if I could somehow go on playing Sink Mill for another 20 years, the diptheria would never go away.

Late Autumn 75 - Diptheria, 426 current cases. It's going to slowly keep climbing to god knows what number. No way to stop it, certainly not with 8 hospitals, probably not with 28 or even with 48, not in this town. Not many deaths, though. A dozen maybe.

Late Spring 76 - against my expectation, the epidemic seems to be dying out, down to 46 cases now from ~680 just a couple of months ago.

Early Summer 76 - 13 cases remain.

The smallpox outbreak OTOH infected virtually the entire town (pop5700+) and killed 1100.

Quote from: irrelevant on September 23, 2014, 08:20:55 PM
Late Autumn 74 - 3028 cases, 186 deaths

Winter 74 - 2991 cases, 400 deaths
2814 cases, 500 deaths
2384 cases, 600 deaths
2194 cases, 700 deaths
Still Winter 74 - 2048 cases, 760 deaths
1255 cases, 900 deaths
822 cases, 984 deaths

Early Spring 75 - 118 cases, 1100 deaths
12 cases, 1112 deaths

The transmission chance for smallpox is 85%, for diptheria it's 55%.

I believe the basic time unit is one game month.

rkelly17

And one can only imagine what it would have been with Plague or Cholera with their 12 square contagion radius and very high transmission chance!

Is there an emoticon for chills running up and down one's spine?
Maybe:  :-( ~~~~~~~~~

irrelevant

That's pretty good! ;D

My first outbreak in my first town was cholera. This was the first or second day I had the game. I was too much of a n00b to get chills; I didn't even have a hospital, and I figured a bunch of guys dying was just par for the course. I do remember every house in town having sick bannies huddled in the doorwaay. I built a hospital right away after that. Right downtown, where it would be handy for everyone.  ;)

rkelly17

Oh yeah. When I first got Banished I built my hospitals on the market square right next to the school. Can you say, "Massive epidemic!" kiddies?

I admit to using @RedKetchup's "Bobbi's special doctorhouse" mod to cut down on hospital idling. That always made me furious.  >:(  I also build walls 8 spaces from hospitals to keep people from taking short cuts.

The chart does indicate that plague or cholera would exceed my 8 space boundaries. Hmmm.