Author Topic: BRAD'S population experiment  (Read 1229 times)

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Offline brads3

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BRAD'S population experiment
« on: November 26, 2017, 08:30:02 AM »
Good morning.i messed with this late last night.not even sure i should post it as it is didn't go very well. it looks more crazy than sence this morning. someone might find it informative.who knows,it might be worth a laugh or two at least. @irrelevant  and i have gone back and forth with his super long map discussing ideas to make a town stable and function on its own.he has found a better balance than this test will.

EXPERIMENT:can  abanished town be created to stay at a stable population and maintain itself.

THEORY: with a certain % of the bannies set to laborers,% to food production,and a % to city services the city should hit equalibrium and maintain or play by itself. there should be only a slight curve to the population due to die offs,which the laborers count shoud replace so no workplaces ever stop functioning.

TEST: using 100 bannies to give a nice round number and % numbers to work with, 25% to laborers,40 % to food 10 each protein,frui,veggy,and grain,
2 to tailors,wood choppers,and blacksmiths. to maintain education 2 to schools. to maintain health 2 herbalists and 1 hospital with doctor. a forester to supply logs and something to supply iron. to keep goods moving,2 market vendors. the extra bannies can be used to process food and in case more supplies are needed.

mod adjustments: i disabled the NMT and CC as well as the proper time mod so the game runs more vanilla. since i am not trying to expand i disabled the more wood and stone mods.to keep the game mechanics vanilla,i also disabled multiple starts.all other building and graphic mods i left alone. this should give a clean test and % numbers should work for any game.

to get a quick test,i used the debug to give seeds and orchards and build everything.this way i could increase the population to 102 since it increases at +4 and stocks for the start.


map settings: 609127375,valleys,small,fair climate,disasters off,medium conditions.

the setup took longer than i expected.50 houses,a forester region with hunter,gatherer,and herbalist. a iron supply field using the renewable resource mod,2 fishing piers,hospotal and cemetary,and over 30 orchards and fields.i say that cause i think i put too many out.the 50 houses i mixed from various mods.then to  keep more bannies working,i added windmills,a bakery,jam shop,smoke shed,butcher,ketchup factory,and the pilgrims rest. this left 32 laborers and 2 builders.

         some bannies tried to live as singles.i added a boardinghouse to solve this.1 child birth death took it down to 101 bannies.over the first 5 years i had to make several adjustments. i tried to get the population of laborers down to 25. i also needed more firewood so a larger wood cutter was set near the forester pile. log and iron markets would help supply the blacksmiths.since food was being produces too quickly,i cut the food workers down twice. i also had to add more forests to supply logs.
        by year 8,there were enough die-offs to empty the boarding house.now i could let the game run by itself.at year 25,the town failed completely.all remaining bannies froze due to a lack of firewood. even as old people died,the population could not maintain itself. children didn't replace the old bannies fast enough so over time there wasn't enough laborers to replace needed workers.with food reserves well stocked,the town survived with fewer and fewer bannies until they ran out of firewood. the population had spiraled downward for many years.

     ok. test failed. i had some issues with this test. it has been a long long time since i played without NMT and CC.by using a small valley map,i was cramped on space.so used to using the CC flatter maps.i had trouble trying to keep log count up.  with the mountains, i didn't have space enough to use 2 vanilla foresters.i think i needed more bannies set to services. 2 or 3 foresters with 2 bannies each would have helped.
       the game aging and using an age mod has been a debate since the game came out.to me it doesn't make sence that the bannies are at 1 speed and the game functions at another.crops grow at 1 year but bannies age at what 8 years in 1.yet the same bannies do not eat food at the faster speed. they eat food at 100 per year regardless.they even breed at a different speed.  if the bannies are to be sped up and die faster,than they should breed and eat food at the faster rate also. this is wacked out and doens't make logical sence. since building and work is done based on a calendar year so also the bannies should function the same.
      the population dying and  speed and births happening at another  does cause issues.this may be the reason LUKE did it.i can't think of any other logical reason to develop the game this way.without constant work,the towns are set to die faster than the population can grow.using vanilla time maskes the challenge harder and maybe impossable.

           this should be re-tested with a larger map. 2 or 3 more forests should be used.this will mean more deer hunters and markets also.an iron mine would have used more workers to help keep the laborer count down.with CC,the mines have to be dug deeper in several stages before they go unlimited.to counter the bannies aging all at once,the town should be built in stages.30 bannies and run 15 years,then add 30 more and run another 15 years.this staggers the population of children. hopefully that would give a better balance to the population.food workers needs to be adjusted from 40 down to 30. enought to feed 200 bannies total.it should also be tested under both aging scenarios.not that i like that theory.

Offline irrelevant

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Re: BRAD'S population experiment
« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2017, 01:44:04 PM »
You can see the sine wave was starting  ;)

Interesting experiment! Look forward to seeing your next try.

Offline Hawk

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Re: BRAD'S population experiment
« Reply #2 on: November 26, 2017, 02:13:17 PM »
You gave a list of mods you disabled but you didn't state which mods you left enabled.
Hawk

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Offline brads3

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Re: BRAD'S population experiment
« Reply #3 on: November 26, 2017, 02:45:02 PM »
@Hawk it is the same as my other town except the changes. http://worldofbanished.com/index.php?topic=2086.0
it is a list.

@irrelevant wave??? more like fell off a cliff.

Offline irrelevant

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Re: BRAD'S population experiment
« Reply #4 on: November 26, 2017, 03:05:47 PM »
Yeah, but that's cause they ran out of firewood. If that hadn't happened you'd be going up and down, just like me.

Offline brads3

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Re: BRAD'S population experiment
« Reply #5 on: November 26, 2017, 04:15:41 PM »
i actually think that is why they ran out of firewood.population dropped and less and less laborers to replace them. then there was nobody to work the forest to gather logs.my next test i am using the same town,reorganized,and with propertime enabled.i was surprised how long they survived with just the firewood in the houses.

Offline irrelevant

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Re: BRAD'S population experiment
« Reply #6 on: November 26, 2017, 04:20:50 PM »
Were you running unattended??

Offline brads3

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Re: BRAD'S population experiment
« Reply #7 on: November 26, 2017, 04:41:26 PM »
yes and no. i did after i watched a few years and made adjustments. but while i was watching a movie i flipped back to take a look now and then.pop spiked over 200,way too many laborers and then spriraled down.

Offline Hawk

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Re: BRAD'S population experiment
« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2017, 03:02:54 AM »
@Hawk it is the same as my other town except the changes. http://worldofbanished.com/index.php?topic=2086.0
it is a list.

117 mods?  :o
WOW! That's a long list.
Hawk

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Yes, I can multitask. I can listen, ignore and forget all at the same time.

Offline brads3

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Re: BRAD'S population experiment
« Reply #9 on: November 27, 2017, 06:15:33 AM »
TEST #2 mod enabled proper time

      Using the same map. i turned the propertime mod on.set the houses to detroy except 15 the boardinghouse.adjusted the crops. added a hunter cabin to the south forests.
       staying with my thinking of staggering the population,i will debug in 32 bannies to start and run it for 15 years.
i set 1 forester and hunter to the north forest and 1 each to the south.this will boost leather for coats. the plan is to build to 24 food workers.with the extra hunters,the nut orchards won't be needed.i will start with 6 crops working 2 each of grain,veggy,and fruit.half the service buildings can be disabled and the food processors.keeping with the 25% laborers, i will start the count at 7.once the main wokrplaces are turned on,i have 5 more workers that are set to process food and the taverns. there is still food from before that can be used up.i increase the suppply of logs and firewood.i increase coats since the town was out of leather.
   once again the bannies like living along so 5 adults stay in the boardinghouse.i tried a few times to force them to fix this.we  start with 16 houses plus the boardinghouse.
    now it should function on its own for 15 years.
   
 year 40.
      by the time children started school,our population had stopped growing.the family houses were full.there are still some singles around.firewood and log counts are much improved.the bannies are still well stocked on food from the prior test.before i go adding the next set of bannies.
    i will reclaim some houses and try to get the boardinghouse empty.to insure the firewood,the mini forester to the south will be started.the herbalist will be doubled up. i reclaim houses to 30 houses.with services and markets all turned on ,i add a church to get us down to 14 laborers. after a few attempts to force housing,i end up with 2 homeless beyond the boardinghouse. remembering the toolbox full of mods,a bonfire is set up along the river to keep them warm.we have 32 houses plus a full boardinghouse.
    phase 2 can be started to run for another 15 years.

pic 1: test 2 population set
pic 2: housing issues
pic 3: population graph to year 40
pic 4: inventory
pic 5: phase 2 set

Offline brads3

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Re: BRAD'S population experiment
« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2017, 06:25:08 AM »
@Hawk  yes it is a huge list. i usually leave them all on,even if they aren't all used in a map.the mod order can be touchy.just by turning CC and NMT off,for some reason the nat div mod isn't functioning completely.it gave me meadows,which hurt the log count. but there is no thatch collected to help.i think it must be the smaller map size since i did use medium settings.

Offline irrelevant

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Re: BRAD'S population experiment
« Reply #11 on: November 27, 2017, 04:28:59 PM »
pic 3: population graph to year 40
If I had to bet, I'd bet you're going to get into a sine wave here in a few years; notice the number of children trending down, a precursor of pop drop.

Offline brads3

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Re: BRAD'S population experiment
« Reply #12 on: November 27, 2017, 04:41:18 PM »
don't pick on me. the computer ate my homework twice today.

Offline irrelevant

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Re: BRAD'S population experiment
« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2017, 05:29:55 PM »
Oops  ;)

I'm pretty much convinced that the best you can hope for is a relatively flat sine wave.

Check out u/MortalSmurph's town in this thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/Banished/comments/792oy5/challenge_how_long_can_your_settlement_last_while/
« Last Edit: November 27, 2017, 05:38:59 PM by irrelevant »

Offline brads3

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Re: BRAD'S population experiment
« Reply #14 on: November 28, 2017, 10:29:46 AM »
phase 2 yr 40-50

      now, i would like to just let this play by itself until year 55 and then start phase 3 of building up to the 100 adult working bannies.i have graduates to consider.winter year 40,the 1st bannie graduates.in order to move him/her out from the parents, i will need to reclaim a house. if i do that, will i need 4 or 5 to empty the boardinghouse first?should i then wait til there is 2 graduates?the graduating bannies will stagger the population growth since they are the youngest and will bear new children. since there has been no deaths yet, i will add 1 house each year til year 50.this should slow the growth rate down and keep the ages balanced.every other graduate i will send to work a field.hopefully this will let the bannies use up some of the reserve but not a lot.
      IRRELEVANT asked about me letting the game run without keeping an eye on it. i run the game in windowed mode not full screne. i learned this computer actally runs the game faster when i minimize it.i can set building projects,minimiize the screen and come back to check on them.more gets done in less time than if i stare at the game screen.it is a neat trick.maybe i should add fine print. don't try that while the game is loading. then the game will crash and this computer is known to shuffle the mod order when it does.it might be subtle and only 1 or 2 mods,but those will be mods that mess up when moved around.trust me,half way through the next map ,you will find issues.
            what i see is the bannies fill the houses with children and then the population ages and dies until enough houses are opened back up to allow children more than there is deaths. then the cycle repeats. the number of houses to the total adult population,controls how big the population has to drop before it recovers.otherwise we have very limited control of the adult population.we want to make the difference between the high population just before it startts to die down and the recovery population less.i think we need to balance the ages in order to do that.these ages are the children,the students,the adults of child bearing years,the non-child-bearing bannies.and the old age range that they will die at.with age mods we can control some of this.the 1:1 aging mod has many options in the changelog. the propertime has about 3 different options. perfect scenario would be half the young in school as students,once they graduate to become child-bearing,and evenly split the adult ages between the 3 adult stages.is it practical to force control the bannies to accomplish this?build a house,once the 3 children are all in school,build the next house for the next family.when these children all are students build the 3rd house.now do that for every family you start with.in theory depending on how well balanced your age mod is,this should give you the most stable population.

         we make it to year 50. by reclaiming 1 house a year,there is now 41 houses.9 short of thr goal.population 97 afult,2 student,and 88 children. way high on young children.the student to children was balanced better at year 40.there has been 3 deaths over the 10 years about 1 every 3 years.
        the town is well srocked since the alarm keeps bugging me that the pile is full.it produces more food than being used.they did eat up some of the reservres from before.the inventory does show 1 issue. the foiresters due to the pine mod collect pelt and furs which will fill the textile limit and stop leather from being collected.there is 36 laborers.
        by now the original adults of this test should be too old to have children.the children from phase 2 should be starting school.3 more adults puts the town to 100.housing is short by 9.
        to start phase 3,i need to cut the labor count back to 25.11 workers-1 hunter,2 fishermen,2 tailors 1 to pelt and 1 to furs coats,butcher back on,add 1 to the jam shop,add a woodcutter and log market to the west,add the nordic teacher,and to stop the annoying alarm i will add the indutrial market to empty the material piles.this gives 31 to produce food,3 teachers,3 foresters,3 to herbs counting the soap,1 iron gatherer.4 tailors,2 blaxksmiths,1 doctor,and 5 wood cutters.the town should have enough to run by itself.
       this leaves the housing. instead of just adding the 9 houses,i will add 1 a year for 9 more years starting next year.along the way i'lll need to find workplaces for 3 bannies,the 3 that would take it to 100 adults.we shall see how phase 3 goes.

pic 1:yr 50 stats
pic 2: production
pic 3: inventory
pic 4: population graph
pic 5: phase 3 start