Author Topic: irrelevant: Gopher Prairie: extreme tenure, 3500 years  (Read 57123 times)

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Offline irrelevant

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Re: irrelevant: Gopher Prairie: extreme tenure, 2500 years
« Reply #360 on: March 12, 2018, 10:28:51 AM »
@Nilla I know this isn't really very much out-of-the-box, as you are urging. I'm not much of an out-of-the-box kind of guy. That's why I gave up on playing with mods, it was too much for me, too many choices. I guess there's a reason I have a boring conventional job.  ;)

I'm more of a find-something-that-works-and-hone-it-until-it's-ready-to-break kind of guy ;D

Offline smurphys7

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Re: irrelevant: Gopher Prairie: extreme tenure, 2500 years
« Reply #361 on: March 12, 2018, 10:33:17 AM »
I think you should drop all of the Fisherman and all of the Foresters outside of the 1 with each Gathering Hut.
 Each Fisherman produces 500? Trade value per year.  Each Forester produces 200?  Trade value per year.

That's inefficient.  Have them do something else, or nothing else.  Trade for Fish and Logs.

Offline irrelevant

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Re: irrelevant: Gopher Prairie: extreme tenure, 2500 years
« Reply #362 on: March 12, 2018, 10:36:06 AM »
Maybe I'll just quit trading altogether. Then I wouldn't need any traders, brewers, or eventually, blacksmiths. I could fire about half of the vendors.

Toolless farmers, though, one per farm might not cut it.....of course I wouldn't need all those peach orchards.....
« Last Edit: March 12, 2018, 10:39:40 AM by irrelevant »

Offline smurphys7

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Re: irrelevant: Gopher Prairie: extreme tenure, 2500 years
« Reply #363 on: March 12, 2018, 10:47:28 AM »
You would need to do TONS of tweaking if you dropped trading entirely.  It would be insanely time consuming to balance.

Farming is possible but inconsistent.  Finding out how much you produce in the long-term would be difficult and time consuming.  Clothing production is difficult but possible to manage.  You need to make sure you neither fill up with textiles nor coats.  Firewood is difficult.  Running out of tools drastically cuts down Log and Firewood production.  Producing enough logs for a self-sufficient town is tough.  Each house doesn't strictly need Firewood.

My major concern is your House to Minimum Adults ratio.  I believe, but I am not certain, that a larger town allows a better ratio.  Your town is drastically larger than any of my towns.  For my smaller towns, the maximum number of jobs (or minimum number of adults) is somewhere below the number of houses.  For my very small towns, in the 30-50 houses range, the total number of jobs could only be 40% of the number of houses.  So a town of 30 homes allowed 12 jobs.  A 50 home town allowed 20 jobs.  My town of 70 homes, so far, has seen a minimum number of 59 adults. 

Right now you are at something like 750 Homes and 1000+ Jobs.  It's possible that this could work.  Personally, I would be shooting for an even number of jobs and homes.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2018, 10:55:30 AM by smurphys7 »

Offline brads3

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Re: irrelevant: Gopher Prairie: extreme tenure, 2500 years
« Reply #364 on: March 12, 2018, 12:13:00 PM »
i am curious to hear IRRELEVANT's take on that. i usuually figure 2 workers per house and 10% to laborers.so at 750 houses,1500 workers with 150 laborers. different way of playing. to me you are talking 500-750 extra laborers that need to be fed. what is your plan to feed all those workers or keep them busy?

Offline Nilla

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Re: irrelevant: Gopher Prairie: extreme tenure, 2500 years
« Reply #365 on: March 12, 2018, 01:17:28 PM »
@Nilla I know this isn't really very much out-of-the-box, as you are urging. I'm not much of an out-of-the-box kind of guy. That's why I gave up on playing with mods, it was too much for me, too many choices. I guess there's a reason I have a boring conventional job.  ;)

I'm more of a find-something-that-works-and-hone-it-until-it's-ready-to-break kind of guy ;D

 :D    Guess, why I told you this "out of the box" stuff? ;)

Quote
Right now you are at something like 750 Homes and 1000+ Jobs.  It's possible that this could work.  Personally, I would be shooting for an even number of jobs and homes.

My guess is that a larger settlement is less vulnerable than a small. These extreme high and low population depends on different random "events". In a large settlement there are much more of every thing; childbirths, uneven gender, deaths,,,,,,,, good and bad things are more likely to take eachother out.

Do each of you have any numbers like average ration max/min? That would be interesting to compare. If I look briefly on the graphs you've published, the first settlement from @smurphys7 had a variation between 25 and 150, a ration of 6, the second  50/250 a ratio of 5, @irrelevantīs 700/2800 a ratio of 4. I guess this means, that you can have a little bit more professions compared to homes in a larger settlement.

Offline smurphys7

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Re: irrelevant: Gopher Prairie: extreme tenure, 2500 years
« Reply #366 on: March 12, 2018, 01:44:15 PM »
We have insufficient data.  Collecting the data is difficult for multiple reasons.  I intended to make a post asking modders if we could get better data.  I guess this is as good a time as any.

Do we know how the 100 Year population graphs are created?  Do we have access to the data behind it?  Do we have access to any variables the game tracks that go into it?  Can we make a 200, 500, or 1,000 year graph?  How about the production tab, etc?  Can we make the production tab do 1,000 years?

Then it's a question of "what do you want your town to survive?"  The lowest population point in 100 years, the lowest population point in 500 years, or the lowest population point in 5,000 years?

The "fluke years" are not regular events.  Some are worse than others.  What level of robustness constitutes an "infinite town"?  Surviving a 100, 500 or 5,000 year fluke year?  Does surviving the regular bottoms count?  Does surviving a "hey that was pretty bad and rare" one count?  Or does surviving a "what the... how is that even possible" fluke year constitute an infinite town.

The methods irrelevant and I use both aren't ideal for collecting data.  It will take irrelevant 3 months of continuous 24 hours a day simulation to go through 1,000 years.  I don't watch my simulation.  Hundreds of years go by and I never see the graph.  I only know "pass/fail".  I may have a picture of years 200-300 and years 900-1000 but I have no idea what happened from 300-900.  I only know if my town died or not.

I do know that I am getting different required ratios in my towns.  I suspect either town side and/or imperfect education are major factors.  Could be both or neither.

My intention is to make a town that can survive the most insane, 1 in 5,000 year, fluke years.  I have not confirmed, but I believe I have done that with trading and with starvation.  I have yet to do that with no trading, no starvation.  I am currently simulating that when I can.  I am 1,000 years in and this picture of a fluke "year" (same as above) is the worst I have had so far.  I was watching when it happened.  My town reached 59 adults.  My town employs 50 citizens.  That means at the lowest point my town had 9 Laborers.  I don't know if I encountered worse fluke years between years 300 and 700.  I don't have the data.  I only know that I did NOT encounter a fluke year that went below 50 adults.  I don't know if that is the worst fluke year possible.  I will find out with more simulation.

Offline irrelevant

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Re: irrelevant: Gopher Prairie: extreme tenure, 2500 years
« Reply #367 on: March 12, 2018, 03:52:30 PM »
i am curious to hear IRRELEVANT's take on that. i usuually figure 2 workers per house and 10% to laborers.so at 750 houses,1500 workers with 150 laborers. different way of playing. to me you are talking 500-750 extra laborers that need to be fed. what is your plan to feed all those workers or keep them busy?
I have 783 homes, and at the moment there are 1124 jobs and 498 laborers. I don't begrudge the laborers their food, they keep the producers producing by storing their production. Food has not been a problem for centuries.

Offline irrelevant

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Re: irrelevant: Gopher Prairie: extreme tenure, 2500 years
« Reply #368 on: March 12, 2018, 03:56:22 PM »
I think you should drop all of the Fisherman and all of the Foresters outside of the 1 with each Gathering Hut.
 Each Fisherman produces 500? Trade value per year.  Each Forester produces 200?  Trade value per year.

That's inefficient.  Have them do something else, or nothing else.  Trade for Fish and Logs.
There is a limit to how much food you can buy. Auto-trading is not really a very good method of supplying food, due to the 9999 limit per food type. Twelve TPs (plus 63@15x4 peach orchards) can barely keep the 47 breweries running.

Offline irrelevant

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Re: irrelevant: Gopher Prairie: extreme tenure, 2500 years
« Reply #369 on: March 12, 2018, 04:09:54 PM »

My major concern is your House to Minimum Adults ratio.  I believe, but I am not certain, that a larger town allows a better ratio.  Your town is drastically larger than any of my towns.  For my smaller towns, the maximum number of jobs (or minimum number of adults) is somewhere below the number of houses.  For my very small towns, in the 30-50 houses range, the total number of jobs could only be 40% of the number of houses.  So a town of 30 homes allowed 12 jobs.  A 50 home town allowed 20 jobs.  My town of 70 homes, so far, has seen a minimum number of 59 adults. 

Right now you are at something like 750 Homes and 1000+ Jobs.  It's possible that this could work.  Personally, I would be shooting for an even number of jobs and homes.
A larger town definitely allows for a higher ratio. For example, Sink Mill at pop 5140 had 1466 homes, with 2750 jobs and 965 laborers. Rickettstown at pop 4000 had 1163 homes, with 2007 workers and 623 laborers. In year 1242, Gopher Prairie had 558 homes, with 877 jobs and 942 laborers (or 0 laborers, depending on where you were on the sine wave).

Offline irrelevant

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Re: irrelevant: Gopher Prairie: extreme tenure, 2500 years
« Reply #370 on: March 13, 2018, 06:56:02 PM »
It will take irrelevant 3 months of continuous 24 hours a day simulation to go through 1,000 years.
Math's off somewhere. I can do two years/hour. That's 500 hours for 1000 years. 500 hours is 3 weeks, not 3 months.

Offline irrelevant

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Re: irrelevant: Gopher Prairie: extreme tenure, 2500 years
« Reply #371 on: March 13, 2018, 07:24:26 PM »
Year 3001

Now, this is interesting. The pop sine wave has started flattening out, apparently all on its own. Or is it?

Not being a believer in happy accidents, I looked for a possible cause, and I think there may be one.

I shut down all the herbalists, thanks to @Nilla's challenging me to think outside the box. As a result, I lost half a heart. As a result, my guys on average aren't living as long. As a result, the houses are opening up faster for new families to form on the down slope of the pop curve.

I haven't lost a professional in 70 years (knock on wood).

Maybe I'll switch all my wheat fields to beans, and see what that does.  ;)

Offline Discrepancy

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Re: irrelevant: Gopher Prairie: extreme tenure, 2500 years
« Reply #372 on: March 13, 2018, 08:13:05 PM »
We have insufficient data.  Collecting the data is difficult for multiple reasons.  I intended to make a post asking modders if we could get better data.  I guess this is as good a time as any.

Do we know how the 100 Year population graphs are created?  Do we have access to the data behind it?  Do we have access to any variables the game tracks that go into it?  Can we make a 200, 500, or 1,000 year graph?  How about the production tab, etc?  Can we make the production tab do 1,000 years?

I do not believe we have the ability to do this. I just checked and tried adjusting a few things but it appears all of these parts of the code are hidden.

Offline Nilla

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Re: irrelevant: Gopher Prairie: extreme tenure, 2500 years
« Reply #373 on: March 14, 2018, 02:05:39 AM »
Do you really mean, that they live shorter, if the health is poor? I haven't seen that. If you remember long ago, I played a game with only protein as food. I couldn't see anything significant and I know, I had people with 80 and more. But I think small differences are hard to see in such a game but would show here, long term.

Opposite to you, I believe in coincidences and random factors working together and against eachother! ;)

So, please give them only beans! My guess is, that it doesn't matter; that your highs will get back real high and your lows real low. But again, I hope that you can prove me wrong!

Offline smurphys7

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Re: irrelevant: Gopher Prairie: extreme tenure, 2500 years
« Reply #374 on: March 14, 2018, 07:16:46 AM »
I don't believe Health affects lifespan.  I did some attempts with Herbalist on and 4.5 Hearts and Herbalist off with 1.5 Hearts.  I saw no differences. 

My tests weren't scientific.  If there was an effect it wasn't very noticable.