I am not sure what the difference is between transmission chance and acquisition chance. I might guess that transmission chance is what chance there is that the infected person is putting out germs, and acquisition chance is what chance uninfected people have of catching the disease from exposure to those germs.
Disease Transmission Acquire "1 in" Percent
Name Time Chance Radius Chance Death Death
Influenza 0.25 0.6 8 100 50 2
Mumps 0.25 0.5 8 90 35 3
Diptheria 0.25 0.55 8 80 80 1
Dysentary 0.25 0.55 8 80 25 4
Yellow Fever 0.25 0.65 8 60 20 5
Scarlet Fever 0.25 0.7 8 50 15 7
Typhus 0.25 0.75 8 40 12 8
Measles 0.25 0.75 8 30 10 10
Tuberculosis 0.25 0.8 8 20 8 13
Smallpox 0.25 0.85 8 10 5 20
Cholera 0.25 0.9 12 5 4 25
Plague 0.25 0.85 12 1 3 33
Yikes! :o :-X
This is good information to have! Interesting to see it is not as random as some thought it was.
I can confirm that the "percent death" from smallpox is indeed 20%. Last night my town Sink Mill pop 5787 suffered (by my count, I may have missed some, sometimes the bonging was continuous) 1112 deaths (19.2%) from smallpox. It's possible that not everyone in the town became infected (which could easily account for the small difference), but there were over 3000 cases at one point.
I know this is just a game, but I would expect the 'Percent Death' to be the probability that an infected person would die from the disease, and should therefore be based on the number of infected individuals, not the total population. If this were not the case, the 'Transmission Chance' and 'Acquire Chance' values would be meaningless. So,
@irrelevant, it seems like you actually had a greater than 20% mortality in your smallpox outbreak (unless the entire population was infected).
This could be because of variations in the RNG used to control the epidemic, or it could be a result of town planning. I can expand more on the last if anyone's interested.
@salamander well, I was assuming that practically all of my population had been infected; the diseased bannies certainly spread themselves to all corners of the map, and there was considerable fluctuation in the number of cases, rather than a bell-shaped curve.
@irrelevant -- My mistake. I keyed in on the 3000+ infected at one point and saw that as short of your total population size. But, with that many folks infected at a certain point in time, you're right, it's likely that the disease ran through most of the population over the course of the outbreak, so the 20% mortality is likely based on the total population. With a population as large as yours, you have a really nice sample size, and it's nice to see your 19.2% as close as it is to the 20% in the .rsc file.
I hope you'll pardon me for being anal about this. I'm a microbiologist, and the spread of epidemics is something I'm interested in. Overall, I think Luke did a nice job of simulating disease outbreaks.
@salamander No one's ever told me I had a nice sample size; I'm flattered :D
No pardon necessary; picking all this apart is endlessly amusing. Yes, this is an amazing simulation he has created.
If I'd been thinking I should have made a save near the beginning of the outbreak. I realized pretty early on that it was going to explode out of control. I could have posted it here, you would probably have enjoyed watching the disease spread. ;)
Quote from: irrelevant on September 24, 2014, 06:24:09 PM
@salamander No one's ever told me I had a nice sample size; I'm flattered :D
I stand by what I said about your sample size, but that doesn't mean we're engaged or anything. ;)
Quote from: irrelevant on September 24, 2014, 06:24:09 PM
If I'd been thinking I should have made a save near the beginning of the outbreak. I realized pretty early on that it was going to explode out of control. I could have posted it here, you would probably have enjoyed watching the disease spread. ;)
That's the thing about epidemics -- they start quickly, peak, and then slowly peter out. And, yes, I would enjoy seeing information about how an outbreak goes from start to finish in the game. I've thought about tracking one myself, just out of curiosity, but my population sizes are normally too low to make it worthwhile, and some of the information you need to plot the course of an epidemic is hard to get in the game.
Speaking about epidemics, I saw a documentary about Ebola yesterday. Scary stuff when it breaks out as bad as it has done now, and it's all made worse by it hitting one of the poorer (and conflict-ridden) parts of the world, which makes it even tougher to contain.
:'(
but these diseases are by default in the game or in the beta via a mod ??
except measles never suffered any of this!
The diseases in the list
@slink put in the first post have been in the game since the start, so far as I know. Not as a mod, but built in.
Quote from: assobanana76 on September 25, 2014, 05:58:53 AM
but these diseases are by default in the game or in the beta via a mod ??
except measles never suffered any of this!
The OP is based on the default file provided by Shining Rock to the users of the beta 1.0.4 modding kit.
Edit: corrected the version number
Quote from: salamander on September 24, 2014, 06:10:48 PM
I hope you'll pardon me for being anal about this. I'm a microbiologist, and the spread of epidemics is something I'm interested in. Overall, I think Luke did a nice job of simulating disease outbreaks.
Being "anal about this" is more or less a membership requirement here. ;) And what a variety of vocations and professions we have here. Most interesting.
@salamander, early on I got so worked up about epidemics that I followed every sick person in several settlements. That was before the mod kit and the ability to see the actual numbers in the .rsc file. The one thing that Banished epidemics don't have that some real diseases have is acquired immunity. I saw several citizens get sick in the same outbreak (stupid hospital idlers) and the way I read the .rsc files there is no protection after getting better.
One funny thing I have seen is citizens dying of old age while in the hospital sick. Once it was patient 0 and that ended the epidemic.
I admit that I've started using
@RedKetchup's mod of the "doctorhouse" to eliminate the happiness effect of idling at the hospital because all the idiots getting sick made me apoplectic, but I do wonder whether hospital idling wasn't put in on purpose to make sure that diseases spread. With enough well-placed hospitals one can limit the number of people who are infected by a sick citizen walking to the hospital, so the idling makes sure more get infected no matter how good one's hospital placement is.
@salamander here is the save file from right after I accepted the nomads. This is before the smallpox hit, but with pop 5000+ and 661 nomads, you can pretty much guarantee that you're going to get hit with some disease. Have fun!!
Quote from: rkelly17 on September 25, 2014, 06:12:09 AM
With enough well-placed hospitals one can limit the number of people who are infected by a sick citizen walking to the hospital, so the idling makes sure more get infected no matter how good one's hospital placement is.
@rkelly17 While this is true up to a point, I believe there is a population density beyond which it would not matter how many hospitals you had; a disease, once it had taken hold, would inevitably spread throughout the town. Based on my recent experience, I believe that the smallpox would have exploded like it did no matter how many hospitals I had.
haha, and have fun too with the horrible lag
Lol yeah I didn't think about that.
Wow. Downloaded the file and looked around a little. Lagged hard! :D There also seemed to be roads across the lake in the south-east, while there weren't roads by the farms up in the northwest. Odd. After a few minutes looking around, the game crashed. Perhaps so much infrastructure and people was too much when I have the game on max settings.
However, upon loading the save, about 10 achievements ticked off :( Is there a way to undo this, or must I reinstall the game?
Quote from: irrelevant on September 25, 2014, 08:21:13 PM
@salamander here is the save file from right after I accepted the nomads. This is before the smallpox hit, but with pop 5000+ and 661 nomads, you can pretty much guarantee that you're going to get hit with some disease. Have fun!!
Thanks -- I'll have to play around with it sometime. Hopefully the town is fairly stable -- I have the hardest time getting to and maintaining large populations (I think the highest I've ever gotten was ~800, and it crashed after a couple of years.), and if it doesn't pretty much take care of itself, I'll probably crash it with or without an epidemic. :)
Quote from: Pangaea on September 26, 2014, 01:54:59 AM
Wow. Downloaded the file and looked around a little. Lagged hard! :D There also seemed to be roads across the lake in the south-east, while there weren't roads by the farms up in the northwest. Odd. After a few minutes looking around, the game crashed. Perhaps so much infrastructure and people was too much when I have the game on max settings.
However, upon loading the save, about 10 achievements ticked off :( Is there a way to undo this, or must I reinstall the game?
For me it ran until the autosave occurred, when it crashed. There were no roads for me at all in the northern quarter of the map, east or west. It was an amazing city!
If you are not running the game on Steam, you can edit the registry to remove the achievements. Otherwise you must re-install the game.
Quote from: irrelevant on September 25, 2014, 08:52:57 PM
Quote from: rkelly17 on September 25, 2014, 06:12:09 AM
With enough well-placed hospitals one can limit the number of people who are infected by a sick citizen walking to the hospital, so the idling makes sure more get infected no matter how good one's hospital placement is.
@rkelly17 While this is true up to a point, I believe there is a population density beyond which it would not matter how many hospitals you had, a disease, once it had taken hold, would inevitably spread throughout the town. Based on my recent experience, I believe that the smallpox would have exploded like it did no matter how many hospitals I had.
I think your are right. In my experience once the city gets beyond 1100 or so the epidemics come fast and furious and grow much more quickly. Given the way the disease mechanism works the more citizens the greater the chance that The Great God RNG will smite one of them with disease. With so many people it becomes almost impossible for sick citizens to wade through the traffic without infecting someone (or multiple someones). I still wonder whether the desirability of the hospital as an idling spot wasn't put in on purpose to make sure disease spreads. Maybe I'm just being a conspiracy theory nut. ;D
Might have been on purpose, or Luke might have a dark sense of humor. After all, he also made the cemetery and the stockyard of the trading post as favorite idling spots.
Quote from: slink on September 26, 2014, 04:49:41 AM
Quote from: Pangaea on September 26, 2014, 01:54:59 AM
Wow. Downloaded the file and looked around a little. Lagged hard! :D There also seemed to be roads across the lake in the south-east, while there weren't roads by the farms up in the northwest. Odd. After a few minutes looking around, the game crashed. Perhaps so much infrastructure and people was too much when I have the game on max settings.
However, upon loading the save, about 10 achievements ticked off :( Is there a way to undo this, or must I reinstall the game?
For me it ran until the autosave occurred, when it crashed. There were no roads for me at all in the northern quarter of the map, east or west. It was an amazing city!
If you are not running the game on Steam, you can edit the registry to remove the achievements. Otherwise you must re-install the game.
Excellent, another advantage to having it NOT on that place. Found those entries in the registry and removed them. All achievements are gone now :thup:
It may have crashed at the autosave for me too then, as it saves every 5 minutes.
I occasionally get crashes with Sink Mill. Sometimes when I save (seems to help to turn the speed down to 1x for a bit, and then pause--or I may be imagining this), and sometimes when I get aggressive with the pathfinding tool, clicking on many structures one after another. It doesn't like that at all.
Quote from: Bobbi on September 26, 2014, 09:29:49 AM
Might have been on purpose, or Luke might have a dark sense of humor. After all, he also made the cemetery and the stockyard of the trading post as favorite idling spots.
I believe this!
Quote from: rkelly17 on September 26, 2014, 08:44:05 AM
I think your are right. In my experience once the city gets beyond 1100 or so the epidemics come fast and furious and grow much more quickly. Given the way the disease mechanism works the more citizens the greater the chance that The Great God RNG will smite one of them with disease. With so many people it becomes almost impossible for sick citizens to wade through the traffic without infecting someone (or multiple someones). I still wonder whether the desirability of the hospital as an idling spot wasn't put in on purpose to make sure disease spreads. Maybe I'm just being a conspiracy theory nut. ;D
I believe this, too!
Quote from: Pangaea on September 26, 2014, 01:54:59 AM
Wow. Downloaded the file and looked around a little. Lagged hard! :D There also seemed to be roads across the lake in the south-east, while there weren't roads by the farms up in the northwest. Odd. After a few minutes looking around, the game crashed. Perhaps so much infrastructure and people was too much when I have the game on max settings.
However, upon loading the save, about 10 achievements ticked off :( Is there a way to undo this, or must I reinstall the game?
Sorry I infected you with unearned achievements; that's happened to me before too, but not nearly this bad.
What I did then was I kept track of the unearned ones, and I just earned them thru play, just like I would have if the machine was keeping track.
My video settings are as min as I can make them.
Quote from: slink on September 26, 2014, 04:49:41 AM
It was an amazing city!
Thanks
@slink; coming from you that is high praise indeed. :)
oh btw , on some computer like my old PC.... if i go more than 2.5k-3k i need to switch to the x32 or i m getting crashes
Quote from: rkelly17 on September 25, 2014, 06:12:09 AM
@salamander, early on I got so worked up about epidemics that I followed every sick person in several settlements. That was before the mod kit and the ability to see the actual numbers in the .rsc file. The one thing that Banished epidemics don't have that some real diseases have is acquired immunity. I saw several citizens get sick in the same outbreak (stupid hospital idlers) and the way I read the .rsc files there is no protection after getting better.
@rkelly17 -- While poking around in the .rsc files, I just ran across a line in Citizen.rsc (in resource\Template) that looks like it might give a period immunity after recovering: 'float _immunityLength = 12.0f'. It's around line 117 in the file. Maybe the 12.0 is the number of months of immunity, but I'm not sure. Based on your observations, it could also be that this value isn't currently used in the game.
Quote from: salamander on September 27, 2014, 07:04:20 AM
@rkelly17 -- While poking around in the .rsc files, I just ran across a line in Citizen.rsc (in resource\Template) that looks like it might give a period immunity after recovering: 'float _immunityLength = 12.0f'. It's around line 117 in the file. Maybe the 12.0 is the number of months of immunity, but I'm not sure. Based on your observations, it could also be that this value isn't currently used in the game.
Yeah, now that you mention it, I saw that line, too. As I remember the situation, the people who got reinfected were ones who had been sick early in the outbreak and they might well have gone past the immunity period when they got sick again from idling outside the hospital. I wish my memory were better.
@rkelly17 float _memoryLength = 1.0f? ;)
LOL -- Mine seems to have gone to somewhere less than 1.0 lately.
Quote from: irrelevant on September 27, 2014, 08:00:12 AM
@rkelly17 float _memoryLength = 1.0f? ;)
Actually my .rsc file says something like Before 1600: float_memoryLength=almost infinite; Yesterday: float_memoryLength=0
;D
an alzimer like me ? how is my float_memoryLength=0
;D ;D
Quote from: salamander on September 27, 2014, 07:04:20 AM
Quote from: rkelly17 on September 25, 2014, 06:12:09 AM
@salamander, early on I got so worked up about epidemics that I followed every sick person in several settlements. That was before the mod kit and the ability to see the actual numbers in the .rsc file. The one thing that Banished epidemics don't have that some real diseases have is acquired immunity. I saw several citizens get sick in the same outbreak (stupid hospital idlers) and the way I read the .rsc files there is no protection after getting better.
@rkelly17 -- While poking around in the .rsc files, I just ran across a line in Citizen.rsc (in resource\Template) that looks like it might give a period immunity after recovering: 'float _immunityLength = 12.0f'. It's around line 117 in the file. Maybe the 12.0 is the number of months of immunity, but I'm not sure. Based on your observations, it could also be that this value isn't currently used in the game.
I've seen that too, but I'm not sure if it is active -- unless it's a relatively new thing. This was probably on 1.0, but I'm almost 100% positive somebody walked out of a hospital after being treated, and practically turning on their heels back in after getting sick again.
Quote from: rkelly17 on September 25, 2014, 06:12:09 AM
I admit that I've started using @RedKetchup's mod of the "doctorhouse" to eliminate the happiness effect of idling at the hospital because all the idiots getting sick made me apoplectic, but I do wonder whether hospital idling wasn't put in on purpose to make sure that diseases spread. With enough well-placed hospitals one can limit the number of people who are infected by a sick citizen walking to the hospital, so the idling makes sure more get infected no matter how good one's hospital placement is.
Thanks for mentioning this mod! There are so many mods now I have no idea where to even begin with them. The hospital idling drives me nuts though, so now I know. :D
Quote from: slink on August 27, 2014, 10:48:26 AM
I am not sure what the difference is between transmission chance and acquisition chance. I might guess that transmission chance is what chance there is that the infected person is putting out germs, and acquisition chance is what chance uninfected people have of catching the disease from exposure to those germs.
Disease Transmission Acquire "1 in" Percent
Name Time Chance Radius Chance Death Death
Influenza 0.25 0.6 8 100 50 2
Mumps 0.25 0.5 8 90 35 3
Diptheria 0.25 0.55 8 80 80 1
Dysentary 0.25 0.55 8 80 25 4
Yellow Fever 0.25 0.65 8 60 20 5
Scarlet Fever 0.25 0.7 8 50 15 7
Typhus 0.25 0.75 8 40 12 8
Measles 0.25 0.75 8 30 10 10
Tuberculosis 0.25 0.8 8 20 8 13
Smallpox 0.25 0.85 8 10 5 20
Cholera 0.25 0.9 12 5 4 25
Plague 0.25 0.85 12 1 3 33
I know this is a dead thread, but I have been thinking a lot about disease, and I have developed a theory regarding what is the difference is between "acquire chance" and "transmission chance"
Something triggers a disease, some RNG event that is checked periodically. This RNG event takes place some time prior to the disease actually showing up. I believe this is the case because I have a save that is from a month or so before the smallpox outbreak that swept through my town Sink Mill.
Whenever this save is replayed, a disease always occurs at more or less the same point in the game. That indicates that the disease-causing event had already taken place.
The actual disease that breaks out, however, is not the same each time. This indicates that there is a second RNG event at the time of the outbreak, that determines which disease pops up.
I believe each disease is checked with a RNG against that disease's "acquire chance," beginning with the least likely, Plague, a 1% chance. If you don't get Plague, it then checks to see whether you get Cholera, the next least likely, then Smallpox, etc, working its way up the list. If you get past Mumps, a 90% chance, then your disease will be Influenza, which has a 100% chance.
This is the only mechanic I can come up with that makes sense of these chances.
The "transmission chance," which varies from 50% to 90%, is the chance of any individual bannie getting the disease, who passes through the "transmission radius" of a sick bannie. Although something about that doesn't seem quite right, as I have the impression that disease is transmitted far less often than that. Perhaps the "transmission time" is a factor here. It could mean that in order for the transmission chance to be checked, a bannie must first spend that amount of time (always 0.25, which I presume means a quarter of a game "month") inside the transmission radius of a sick bannie. That would account for idlers (and pedestrians walking in the same direction) getting sick more frequently than pedestrians just passing in the street.
Just speculation, but it all fits what I have observed.
Very interesting,
@irrelevant, very interesting. The transmission odds seem, well, odd. In your save game have you noticed any difference in the size of the epidemic based on which disease is triggered? As I read the table, based on your theory, 85 out of 100 times a citizen who is within 12 squares of a citizen sick with plague for .25 whatevers (What is the time unit in Banished?) will get plague. On the other hand, only 60 times out of 100 a citizen who is within 8 squares of a citizen with influenza for .25 whatevers will get the flu. That means that plague should spread more quickly and be more difficult to eradicate than flu. Am I reading you correctly?
@rkelly17 Yes, that is what I believe.
I played the Sink Mill epidemic scenario twice. The first time I got smallpox, the second time diptheria. Here was my observation at the time:
Quote from: irrelevant on October 06, 2014, 10:07:00 PMAutumn 75 - Interesting, the diptheria outbreak is progressing much differently than what the smallpox did. Where the smallpox exploded out into the population in a short time, the diptheria is very slow to spread. It took three months to grow beyond 10 cases. Now there are 60, and while hardly anyone has died from it, there is no hope of stopping it. I think if I could somehow go on playing Sink Mill for another 20 years, the diptheria would never go away.
Late Autumn 75 - Diptheria, 426 current cases. It's going to slowly keep climbing to god knows what number. No way to stop it, certainly not with 8 hospitals, probably not with 28 or even with 48, not in this town. Not many deaths, though. A dozen maybe.
Late Spring 76 - against my expectation, the epidemic seems to be dying out, down to 46 cases now from ~680 just a couple of months ago.
Early Summer 76 - 13 cases remain.
The smallpox outbreak OTOH infected virtually the entire town (pop5700+) and killed 1100.
Quote from: irrelevant on September 23, 2014, 08:20:55 PM
Late Autumn 74 - 3028 cases, 186 deaths
Winter 74 - 2991 cases, 400 deaths
2814 cases, 500 deaths
2384 cases, 600 deaths
2194 cases, 700 deaths
Still Winter 74 - 2048 cases, 760 deaths
1255 cases, 900 deaths
822 cases, 984 deaths
Early Spring 75 - 118 cases, 1100 deaths
12 cases, 1112 deaths
The transmission chance for smallpox is 85%, for diptheria it's 55%.
I believe the basic time unit is one game month.
And one can only imagine what it would have been with Plague or Cholera with their 12 square contagion radius and very high transmission chance!
Is there an emoticon for chills running up and down one's spine?
Maybe: :-( ~~~~~~~~~
That's pretty good! ;D
My first outbreak in my first town was cholera. This was the first or second day I had the game. I was too much of a n00b to get chills; I didn't even have a hospital, and I figured a bunch of guys dying was just par for the course. I do remember every house in town having sick bannies huddled in the doorwaay. I built a hospital right away after that. Right downtown, where it would be handy for everyone. ;)
Oh yeah. When I first got Banished I built my hospitals on the market square right next to the school. Can you say, "Massive epidemic!" kiddies?
I admit to using
@RedKetchup's "Bobbi's special doctorhouse" mod to cut down on hospital idling. That always made me furious. >:( I also build walls 8 spaces from hospitals to keep people from taking short cuts.
The chart does indicate that plague or cholera would exceed my 8 space boundaries. Hmmm.